Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $762,865$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{990,544.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 148.5)}}\) (asimptote \(990,544.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,369$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,160.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.6)}}\) (asimptote \(37,160.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $123,659$ on 2020-09-20

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $130,676$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,827.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.1)}}\) (asimptote \(139,827.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,617$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(149 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 166.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13,568.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,442$ on 2020-09-20

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,544,629$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,018,781.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,018,781.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $136,895$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,614.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 112.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,614.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $444,288$ on 2020-09-20

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $446,274$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{414,791.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 102.8)}}\) (asimptote \(414,791.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,286$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,741.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 103.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,741.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,242$ on 2020-09-20

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $126,419$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147,353.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(147,353.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,090$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(940 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,777.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 191.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,777.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,477$ on 2020-09-20

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $765,076$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905,155.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 153.0)}}\) (asimptote \(905,155.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,208$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(499 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,662.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,662.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $107,669$ on 2020-09-20

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $631,365$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,069,998.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,069,998.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,053$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,158.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.6)}}\) (asimptote \(26,158.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $130,081$ on 2020-09-20

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,723$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(51.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,292.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 151.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,292.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $97$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 160.6)}}\) (asimptote \(172.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $138$ on 2020-09-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Suriname recovered 86%
Chile recovered 83%
Bolivia recovered 45%
Peru recovered 26%
Venezuela recovered 18%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $66,656$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(459 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,546.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 166.3)}}\) (asimptote \(91,546.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $547$ on 2020-09-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.74 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{743.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 152.8)}}\) (asimptote \(743.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,013$ on 2020-09-20