Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $762,865$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{990,544.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 148.5)}}\) (asimptote \(990,544.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,369$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,160.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.6)}}\) (asimptote \(37,160.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $123,659$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $130,676$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,827.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.1)}}\) (asimptote \(139,827.8\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,617$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(149 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 166.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13,568.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,442$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,544,629$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,018,781.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,018,781.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $136,895$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,614.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 112.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,614.3\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $444,288$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $446,274$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.8 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{414,791.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 102.8)}}\) (asimptote \(414,791.2\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,286$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,741.5}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 103.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,741.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,242$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $126,419$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{147,353.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(147,353.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,090$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(940 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,777.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 191.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,777.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,477$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $765,076$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905,155.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 153.0)}}\) (asimptote \(905,155.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,208$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(499 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,662.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,662.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $107,669$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $631,365$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(4.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,069,998.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,069,998.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,053$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,158.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 180.6)}}\) (asimptote \(26,158.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $130,081$ on 2020-09-20
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,723$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(51.4 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,292.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 151.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,292.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $97$ on 2020-09-20
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 160.6)}}\) (asimptote \(172.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $138$ on 2020-09-20
